Why Bitcoin Could Be Away From $ 100,000, According To Fidelity Expert


The bulls regain control after a brief drop in the price of Bitcoin. The # 1 cryptocurrency by market cap is trading north of $ 57,000 with a profit of 2.5% and 11.1% in the daily and weekly charts, respectively.

BTC on a rally in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The general sentiment in the markets is bullish as traders and traders expect Bitcoin to achieve its historic performance. The price of BTC generally tends to increase at the end of the year.

Related reading | Bitcoin Price Prepares To Move Into RSI “Bullish Zone”

Bitcoin is trading below $ 10,000 from its all-time high of $ 64,870 and it could end up in uncharted territory if, as Macro Director for Fidelity Jurrien Timmer said in a report. maintenance with CNBC, short-term FOMO holders in BTC. These investors are those who have only held BTC for 3 months.

As shown in the graph below, only 15% of the total BTC supply is currently held by ‘elk hunters’. For Bitcoin to reach new highs, this metric must be above 20%.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

In this sense, Timmer believes that Bitcoin’s current uptrend lacks “excess,” which might suggest some stability and sustainability for the current price action. Unlike previous gatherings, this time Bitcoin appears to be emerging from the influence of “speculators,” as Timmer called them.

However, some traders might find Timmer’s prediction disappointing as he believes the benchmark crypto is far from the major psychological $ 100,000 mark.

Related reading | Bitcoin’s short-term supply hits record high

When the expert checked the Bitcoin / Gold ratio to analyze the BTC supply / demand model, he found the following:

So, is bitcoin on its way to new heights? I know better than to make bold price projections, but I’ll note that the next (and last) time my supply and demand patterns intersect is around $ 100,000 in 2023 or 2024.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

Bitcoin away from the top, the bulls step on the accelerator


On the other hand, analyst Allen Au looked at the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator to determine if the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase. This metric has been historically accurate in predicting market highs.

As the analyst explained, it uses the 111-day simple moving average and the 250 simple moving average (SMA) of the price of Bitcoin. When these two intertwine, traders start to suspect that BTC has peaked.

Related reading | Bitcoin Whales Accumulation Patterns Show Strong Bullish Sentiment Among Major Holders

Unlike Timmer, this model predicts a Bitcoin price above the $ 300,000 mark by the end of 2021. As the analyst clarified, Bitcoin needs to break through the previous bull cycle for the metric to be accurate. :

What I have shown is not to invalidate the Pi Cycle Top indicator or to agree that there is an elongation cycle. What the simulations have shown is that the Pi Cycle Top will miss the peak of the BTC cycle if it were to occur in December 2021, unless BTC is now in a supercycle.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Allen Au via Twitter

In the scenarios presented by Au, regardless of the exact prediction of the BTC price, the cryptocurrency will trend higher at least until it reaches its potential peak in 2022.



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